According to the World Bank, in the first two months of the year, Vietnam’s exports increased by 8.0%, foreign investment inflows amounted to 2.5 billion USD and retail sales increased by 5.4%.
Although the future prospects are still favorable for Vietnam’s economy, its GDP growth will be negatively affected by the new coronavirus outbreak that is spreading globally.
Preliminary estimates show that the economy could grow by 4.9% by 2020, about 1.6 percentage points lower than our previous forecast.
The industries most affected will include tourism and manufacturing due to supply chain disruptions. Inflationary pressures are expected to rise temporarily, reflecting uncertain fuel and food prices, and possible trade disruptions.
With many households now dependent on wages even in rural areas, a slowdown in tourism, hotels and catering services as well as manufacturing industries could temporarily increase poverty in the first half of the year. 2020, WB said.
It predicts that the country’s fiscal deficit will temporarily increase by 2020 due to lower revenues and fiscal stimulus will partially offset the negative impact of the global pandemic on the national economy. .
However, the bank said that in the medium term, Vietnam’s economic growth is forecast to grow back to 7.5% by 2021 and converge at around 6.5% by 2022, reflecting demand. improved and enhanced external services, as well as increasing recovery in agricultural production.
The economy will also recover from the global coronavirus pandemic. Poverty is expected to continue to decline further, as labor market conditions are expected to remain favorable.
The Bank predicts that Vietnam can manage external risks by diversifying trade flows, improving competitiveness and complying with new trade agreements, including the European Free Trade Agreement. – Vietnam (EVFTA).