Vietnam Economy Development in The Export Production

Closely monitoring Vietnam economy development in the world market, advising and proposing cooperation frameworks and solutions to simultaneously develop traditional markets and diversify export markets… are considered solutions. Outstanding priority measures of the Ministry of Industry and Trade in the coming time to promote and support enterprises in the context that export orders tend to decrease sharply and stagnate.

The industrial production index fell sharply in the Vietnam economy development

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, although the production capacity of the economy has shown signs of weakening since the beginning of the year with the index of industrial production (IIP) in January 2023 down 14.6% compared to the previous month and down 8% compared to the same period last year. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of Vietnam’s manufacturing industry reached 47.4 points in January 2023, up from 46.4 points in December 2023. However, the health of the manufacturing industry has begun to improve after a 3-month decline. Accordingly, Vietnam’s manufacturing PMI rose again to above 50 points in February 2023 (from 47.4 points in January 2023 to 51.2 points). This shows that Vietnam’s manufacturing industry in February 2023 recorded growth again when the number of new orders increased again with the support of the increase in output, employment, and purchasing activity. row. Improved demand sent business confidence up for the third time in a row.

However, entering February 2023, due to a sharp decline in aggregate demand from abroad, it affected the number of orders and the size of orders decreased, affecting industrial production. Although the number of working days in February 2023 is more than the previous month, the IIP index this month is estimated to increase only by 5.1% and only 3.6% over the same period. Generally for the first 2 months of 2023, IIP decreased by 6.3% over the same period, of which the manufacturing industry was estimated to decrease by 6.9%; the mining industry is estimated to decrease by 3.8%; electricity production and distribution is estimated to decrease by 5.2%.

Generally, in the first two months of 2023, IIP is estimated to decrease by 6.3% compared to the same period last year (in the same period, it increased by 5.6%) because the world economy continues to face many difficulties, unpredictable fluctuations, inflation in the Although the country has cooled down, it is still at a high level, orders have decreased, and export turnover has decreased. Significantly, the industrial production index in the first 2 months of 2023 of a number of key grade-II industries dropped sharply compared to the same period last year, such as electrical equipment manufacturing down 50.7%; production of beds, cabinets, tables, and chairs down 13.6%…

Forecasting is still difficult for Vietnam economy development

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, at the 53rd World Economic Forum Annual Meeting, many experts assessed that the world economy in 2023 will continue to face many difficulties and the possibility of a recession, and GDP growth this year will continue to increase. 2023 is forecasted to be 0.5-1% lower than 2022 if no mutation occurs.

Significantly, the US and EU economies, which are major trading markets of Vietnam, only grew below 1% and the possibility of a recession is not excluded. The real estate market in many countries declined sharply, directly affecting many manufacturing industries and fields, and increasing risks to the financial market, currency, and corporate bonds… These trends will reduce demand for goods and affect new investment, production, and export of countries, including Vietnam.

Along with that, the two main growth drivers of Vietnam’s exports and domestic consumption may face many challenges. Export demand will face common challenges, rising inflation will hinder economic recovery.

However, besides the difficulties, China’s economy began to reopen; A number of emerging economies in Asia such as India and Asean have experienced positive growth, which is a positive signal for our country’s economy and trade. Facing these developments, the Ministry of Industry and Trade said that in the coming time, it will closely follow the international and domestic situation, from which there are many specific and practical solutions to overcome difficulties as well as take advantage of opportunities. from captured markets. As for export activities, the Ministry will prioritize and closely monitor developments in the world market, advise and propose cooperation frameworks and solutions to simultaneously develop traditional markets and diversify export markets.

For the Vietnam economy development of the domestic market, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will promote the effective implementation of trade promotion programs (XTTM), and promote the distribution of goods via digital platforms, and e-commerce to expand the market. domestic consumption; organize to promote the effective implementation of the Strategy on Domestic Trade Development for the period to 2030, with a Vision to 2045 and Programs and Schemes on Domestic Trade Development; renovating methods, integrating trade promotion activities to develop the domestic market into consumer demand stimulation programs, connecting commodity supply and demand, stabilizing the market…

More significantly, the Ministry will review the backlogs in major industrial projects that play an important role, remove difficulties to be put into operation soon; closely follow the progress, and remove difficulties to soon put operation key projects, playing an important role in the fields of electricity, oil, and gas, processing industry, manufacturing, minerals… in order to increase new production capacity and proactively create raw materials and fuel supplies, develop production sustainably. At the same time, continue to organize the connection of domestic enterprises to participate in the supply chains of FDI and large global enterprises.

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