[Assumptions] Scenarios of economic recovery in Vietnam after Covid-19
Assuming the magnitude of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Vietnam’s economic growth will depend on how long it is possible to control the disease, the degree of disruption to production, and the decrease in consumption demand of market. This pandemic will have the worst impact on services, industry and construction, with less severe impacts on agriculture, forestry, and fisheries.
There are three scenarios for Vietnam’s GDP growth in the coming quarters, When the disease is under control, it is assumed that:
- The Best scenario: The pandemic will end in QII/20, and business activities will return to normal in QIII/20.
- The Normal scenario: Pandemic will end in QIII/20., and business activities will return to normal in QIV/20.
- The Worst scenario: Pandemic will end in QIV/20., and business activities will return to normal in QI/21.
Regarding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on industries, the COVID-19 disease estimate will severely disrupt business activities in industry and construction, and services, compared to other industries, at 5% in the first quarter, and 10% in the following quarters. The epidemic will also have a negative impact on agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, but to a less serious extent, the reduction could be 2% in Q1 and 5% in subsequent quarters.
It is assumed that the government will support affected businesses after the epidemic ends, with an estimated support level of 5%.
These assumptions are for reference only
and cannot be used to prove
or commit for actual reporting and development
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